A Strategic Mismatch Between Golf and Blackjack

Today, we’ll talk about how to handle risks in golf.

To show my point, I’ll use the card game Blackjack as an example. The goal is to get a “hand” that ends in “blackjack,” which is 21. For example, a blackjack is made up of an ace and a king.

What does this have to do with golf?

For that, let’s talk about plans.

Following the “best strategy”

Pros at the game of blackjack rely on a system of rules known as Basic Strategy to determine how to play each hand in relation to the dealer’s and their own.

A “cheat sheet” would be a better way to put it.

If a player’s hand totals 11 points when dealt, for instance, they should always aim to “double their bet” due to the high likelihood of winning.

If a player follows these guidelines, they will have a far better chance of winning. It won’t ensure success, but it will increase your chances of winning significantly over a haphazard gambler.

You might see some parallels if you’ve spent enough time around golf.

If you’re in a sticky scenario on the golf course, for instance, you should always play the shot that you’re at least 7 out of 10 times capable of completing. This principle is known as the 7/10 rule.

You won’t believe it, but that regulation wasn’t just made up. Mark Broadie determined in Every Shot Counts  that a golfer needs to be 72% accurate (7 out of 10) with recovery shots in order to “breakeven” (i.e., gain no strokes) from such a circumstance. This was based on statistics from thousands of shots.

To take it a notch further, a golfer needs an 86% success rate, or 9 out of 10, on the shot they are trying to shoot in order to gain strokes on the field when recovering. This shot will likely provide them an average of 0.2 field strokes, given the probability.

In golf, don’t make things worse for yourself.

Since blackjack only lets for a limited number of possible outcomes, each hand in the game has a predefined “by the book” move players may make to raise their odds of winning.

In golf, there isn’t a “book” as such. There are really countless opportunities.

Still, this does not exclude the potential of “beating the house” with better golf technique.

Professionals virtually seldom repeat the same mistake twice unlike novices. Among the most obvious differences between the two are this ones. This results, in my view, from two elements:

• They “take their medicine” and are clearly quite skilled at the game.

I’m not going to be able to play golf like a pro overnight, but I can teach you how to play better.

For most players, the game is more about staying safe than getting better shots.

Take Care of the Damage: How do we play smart golf?

“Smart golf” is a term whose exact meaning is unknown. It’s a catchall term for the principle I described up top.

Thus, let us give this substance. Here are three strategies to help you play “smarter” and increase your chances of winning.

Tip #1: Stop trying to make up lost ground

Most golfers don’t dwell on their bad shots; instead, they move on to the next one in the hopes of getting better.

We can see that this method didn’t work when we look back.

Not only are we more likely to get angry, distracted, or impatient on the second try, but we also tend to take more dangerous shots on the second try.

At the 4:21 mark of the video below, I talk about this in more depth. After making a double-bogey, I had to decide if I wanted to “go for it” on a par-5. It would take two shots. I “took my medicine” and laid down, but my round didn’t get worse. I scored a par.

Tip #2: Study the facts to make smarter choices

People who have wrong ideas about the “easiest” shots have cost the game of golf a lot of strokes.

As an example of what I mean, I said in a previous issue that players of all skill levels tend to shoot lower with a 50-yard pitch shot than with a full 100-yard swing. A lot of players, including me for a long time, lay up to that distance because they think a full swing is easier than a partial wedge.

We also don’t follow the 7/10 rule and try to make the result of “threading the needle” between those trees as small as possible.

Luckily, I write about things like this in my email! However, if you want to get an edge over your rivals, I suggest reading Every Shot Counts  to learn more about strokes.

Tip #3: Play the hole backwards

When I was a regular golfer, I would often play practice games before big events. It helps us understand the course from start to finish when we play practice games.

When planning your hole strategy, it’s helpful to keep an eye out for places around the greens that might be hard.

A short par-4 course with a steep front-to-back slope and a pin that faces forward might not be the best place to drive from the tee. Why? Because if you hit the front pin with your driver, you might have to play a half wedge shot, which is very hard. If you’re not high enough, you can’t hit it with enough spin.

You could hit a 3-wood and then a full swing with a pitching wedge or 9-iron to get enough spin and loft to stay out of trouble on that tough green.

Helpful Play Tips

How can players enhance their performance in both golf and Blackjack?

First, in Blackjack, mastering basic strategy is essential; know when to hit, stand, or double down based on your hand value.

In golf, utilize the 7/10 rule—aim for shots you can execute with a 70% success rate.

Avoid immediate recovery attempts after a bad shot; instead, focus on your next play.

Analyzing data can help debunk myths about shot difficulties, allowing for informed decisions.

Play holes backward to identify potential trouble spots and strategize accordingly.

Finally, prioritize planning over impulsivity; a well-thought-out approach can greatly boost your performance in both games.

These practical tips will guide you toward mastery in golf and Blackjack alike.

Final Thoughts

I know this issue was denser than most, but I hope it gave you some ideas on how to improve your own strategy to manage risk better.

Remember:

• Damage control is more important than hero shots
• Use the 7/10 rule
• Play the hole backwards, take note of the risks, and build your strategy from there

See you in the next issue!

Frequently Asked Questions

How Can I Apply Blackjack Strategies to Improve My Golf Game?

To enhance your golf game, apply blackjack strategies by prioritizing data-driven decision-making, focusing on damage control, and embracing calculated risk assessment, ultimately improving shot selection and overall performance through disciplined practice and strategic planning.

What Are the Psychological Similarities Between Golf and Blackjack?

Both golf and blackjack are psychological battlegrounds, where patience, risk management, and emotional control dictate success. Mastering these mental aspects fosters resilience and strategic decision-making, essential for excelling in both disciplines and achieving peak performance.

Are There Specific Drills That Combine Golf and Blackjack Strategies?

Integrating drills that emphasize decision-making under pressure can enhance both golf and blackjack strategies. Practicing shot selection based on statistical likelihoods while simulating high-stakes scenarios fosters mastery of risk assessment and performance management in both disciplines.

How Does Risk Assessment Differ in Golf Compared to Blackjack?

Risk assessment in golf resembles steering a winding river; each bend presents unique challenges. Unlike blackjack’s finite scenarios, golf’s infinite possibilities require adaptive strategies, emphasizing calculated decisions to mitigate errors and optimize performance outcomes.

Can Playing Blackjack Improve My Focus in Golf?

Playing blackjack can enhance focus in golf by cultivating decision-making skills under pressure. The strategic thinking required in blackjack translates to improved mental discipline, helping golfers maintain concentration and composure during competitive play and challenging situations.