What Makes Bogey Putts Easier Than Par Putts

The idea for this piece came from reading the book Every Shot Counts and looking at the numbers behind par and birdie putts.

So I began to think… The interesting idea is still the same, even though most beginners probably aren’t going for birdies on most greens.

Let’s say that both your par and bad putts are the same length. Which do you think you’ll make most likely?

Most amateurs would say “bogey putt” as the answer, in my view.

“Must make” vs. “Nice to Make”

Even though I don’t have statistics to support it, in competitive golf I always felt like I made more par putts than birdie putts. For some reason, I just “had to make” the par putts to keep the round going, and the birdie putts were more of a “nice to make” than anything else.

Since I no longer felt nervous about missing par putts, I was able to devote more energy and concentration to my swing.

For a “bogey golfer,” even a routine bogey isn’t terrifying. “Good” describes it. The word “expected” describes it perfectly.

Still, you may find yourself thinking, “Wow, this could accelerate my round if I made this” as you stand over a par putt.

And you fall victim to many of the well-known round-killers:

• You “guide the putt” (trying too hard to make it)
• You get timid with the putt
• You think too much about the putt.
• Thinking about what it will accomplish for your round takes your focus away from maintaining a low head position and producing a superb stroke.

You know the drill—we’ve all had this happen.

Of equal length, a birdie putt has a distinct psychological impact than a par, bogey, or par putt. I think we can all agree on that. All of us interpret these scores in somewhat different ways.

But is this supported by the data?

The numbers say: Are players “loss averse”?

Devin Pope and Maurice Schweitzer looked at pros players’ putts in 2011 to see if they were “risk-averse” and putted better when they “had to make it” vs. when they “wanted to make it.”

Professional players make more putts for par than putts for birdies that are the same length and type.

Here is a more in-depth justification:

The studies validate what many believed: even top athletes like Tiger Woods exhibit indications of loss aversion. In line with their goal to save losses, they are less exact with birdie putts than with par putts.

With approximately 2.5 million putts from PGA Tour events included in the analysis, it offers a comprehensive view of performance when stakes are high.

Golfers’ most often used reference point is “par,” which influences their performance. Putters for par or bogey (above par) and birdie (under par) call for different strokes.

Round to Round Changes: In the first round of a tournament, par’s and birdie’s accuracy differences widen; then, they reduce in later rounds.

When golfers give greater attention to the gain domain—that is, when they aim for birdie—their risk choices alter in line with Prospect Theory rather than when they aim for par.

The results show that the loss aversion phenomena is strong since they hold even after considering factors including putt distance, player ability, and green location.

Possible explanations

Numerous theories have been advanced to account for this phenomenon, but the two that have struck me as most plausible are:

If you miss your putt by a hair, you’ll still have a second chance at the hole because most professionals hit their putts at the right pace. Additionally, professionals keep a close eye on the ball as it flies by to determine the break of the comeback putt. Now that I have that helpful information, the following putt will be a little bit easier.

Psychiatry—the research notes that golfers are more “loss averse”. That putt they should make is important to them, and they don’t want to lose it.

My Final Thought

If you wish to derive any sensible results from this study, keep an eye on your putts even if they go wide.

You will somewhat benefit now that you know how the comeback putt breaks.

Do also everything you can to lessen this effect! When facing a par putt—or, for better players, a birdie putt—give your pre-shot ritual more TLC. Think about the things you can influence.

• Get a good read on the putt
• Visualize it going in
• Keep your head down

And with that, I’ll see you next week!